Major Steps Taken to Make Informed Decisions

7 October 2024

Björn Arnar Hauksson - Major Steps Taken to Make Informed Decisions

Björn Arnar Hauksson, Head of Data and Analysis at Orkustofnun, discussed the importance of data collection and analysis to support decision-making in energy matters. At Orkustofnun’s annual meeting, he presented eight major improvement projects that Orkustofnun has undertaken recently. These projects form the foundation for the institution to better support the government's goals regarding energy security, energy transitions, and equal access to energy across the country.

Björn emphasized the importance of improving data accessibility to ensure better decision-making in energy production, security, and transitions. He pointed out that the lack of sufficient and timely information could lead to energy shortages, highlighting the need for regular and easily understandable data publication.

Energy Forecast and Wind Power Björn introduced Orkustofnuns’s latest analysis on the feasibility of electricity production and e-fuels. He emphasized that Iceland is presented with significant opportunities in developing cost-efficient wind farms that could contribute to e-fuel production. He presented scenarios comparing the efficiency of wind energy, hydropower, and geothermal energy, underscoring the importance of building new power plants to meet the increasing demand for electricity.

He also mentioned the expected wholesale electricity price by 2030, which is estimated to range between 7.5 and 10 ISK/kWh, largely dependent on water reservoir levels. Björn pointed out that Orkustofnun’s electricity price forecast, published last spring, was based on a supply analysis that would help predict future electricity price developments.

Data Publication and New Technology Björn also presented plans for significantly improved data publication in the coming year. Orkustofnun's new website now receives around 250,000 page views per year and offers various data, such as geothermal mapping, information on oil usage, and electricity security status. He mentioned that while data accessibility has greatly improved, there are still significant opportunities to enhance the dissemination of information and advice.

Electricity indicators are published quarterly, providing detailed information on electricity production, consumption, and security. Björn noted that the status of electricity security for priority consumers had significantly improved from last year, but that restrictions are anticipated this winter and in the coming year for interruptible consumers.

Vision and Next Steps Orkustofnun's vision involves a transformation of databases for electricity and geothermal energy. Björn emphasized that cooperation with domestic entities such as energy companies, Netorka, and Statistics Iceland will be crucial to publishing data within seven days, instead of the 16-month delay that has been typical in the past.

Additionally, Orkustofnun's new institution will place even greater emphasis on communicating information through user-friendly maps and visuals, benefiting both the government and the public in making informed decisions. This will also strengthen information regarding geothermal energy, particularly concerning potential supply, production costs, and demand.

Challenges and Opportunities Björn recognized that the launch of a new energy institution will pose short-term challenges, particularly due to changes in information technology and organization. He stressed the importance of minimizing delays in core project work to ensure that the quality of operations remains high.

In the long term, there are tremendous opportunities, especially in data analysis and information technology. With the new institution, it will be possible to achieve greater economies of scale and synergies in team operations, data infrastructure, and information dissemination, which will benefit all stakeholders in the energy sector.

Recording and Slides A recording of Orkustofnun's annual meeting, where these points were discussed, is available on YouTube.

Björn Arnar Hauksson’s presentation slides can be viewed here: Björn Arnar Hauksson’s Presentation Slides.