Electricity forecasts

The basic forecast predicts the probable evolution of electricity use based on available data. The same methodology is always used when creating the base forecast; increased use by large consumers is not factored in until contracts have been made available, so the main focus is on general electricity use of homes and businesses.

Here are some of the premises of the base forecast:

• By the year 2030 all newly registered personal vehicles will be electric cars and by 2040 all newly registered vehicles will be electric, including trucks and buses.
• The ratio of renewable fuel in international flights will be 5% by 2030 and 50% by 2050. In addition, that 50% of the energy used in domestic flights will be renewable by 2036.
• That renewable energy will have reached 50% amongst the larger ships by 2050, by 2040 with smaller fishing ships, and by 2035 in domestic shipping.

In parallel to the base forecast, a “high forecast” scenario is published that is based mostly on increased operations in energy transition. In this scenario are amongst others:

• That the ratio of newly registered personal vehicles and vans will be 100% as soon as 2025.
• Electrical fuel will begin to be considered as a fuel source. It is assumed that all the electrical fuel that is used in Iceland will be produced domestically.
• Significant increase in electricity use amongst data centres and fish farming compared to the basic forecast.

The published material is only available in Icelandic.